Below The Fold

On Sunday, The Sopranos begins its final march toward conclusion.
The speculation over how the loose ends are tied is all over the map, albeit in a bit less volume than it might have been, had the last season never happened.
You can some up the last season of the Sopranos in five words:
“I love you Johnny Cakes.”
Seriously. You could package up all 6 seasons and then throw away last season and sell a five season-set without missing a beat. Between a useless plot tangent about a homosexual gangster and Tony spending half the season in a coma imagining he’s a traveling salesman, nothing really happened.
So, David Chase et. al. are left standing at a precipice of disaster and success. They have nine episodes to wrap this thing up. And I’ve got a couple theories on where it’s going.

Classic Tragedy: Tony dies. According to the fables of the Cosa Nostra, and in his own, prophetic words, it’s either prison or death for Tony, and prison just doesn’t seem a likely option. Tony’s a guns-blazing kind of guy. So, Tony gets whacked. Given the collection of likely candidates for this, the best choice for his dispatcher is Silvio. Silvio is his closest ally, his consigliere. That’s always the guy who gets tasked with taking you out.

Silvio Dante: Kills Tony Soprano

Classic Gangster Mythos: A Death in the Family. There are fates worse than death, and to Tony, that would likely be the loss of Carmela, AJ or Meadow. Of the three, Meadow’s would be the greatest blow to him emotionally, and follows along the line of the Godfather tragedy as well. Meadow’s the pride and joy and the daddy’s girl, and easily could end up at the wrong end of one of his enemies’ gun barrels. Carmela and A.J. are possible victims as well, but neither has quite the tragic irony as Meadow’s death would bring.

Meadow Soprano. Dead.

Classic American Western Mythos (a.k.a. The Shootist scenario): Tony Soprano is a depressive, melancholy protagonist, and suicide isn’t necessarily out of the question. What would be unlikely is him putting a gun in his mouth or taking a fist full of pills. Tony would opt for a guns-blazing exit, along the lines of John Wayne’s final role in The Shootist. Wayne plays John Books, a cancer-riddled gunfighter who sets up one final battle with the best gunslingers around in the hopes that one of them will do a quicker job on him than the cancer will. Wayne himself died a few years later of stomach cancer. If Tony wanted a quick way out, this would be it.

John Books: Inspires Soprano’s “Shootist” suicide

As to the rest of the likely casualties, here are my odds-on favorites for the remaining plot points:

Christopher Moltisanti:

Dead. Likely in an anti-climatic way. He either kills himself, overdoses, or gets killed by some random drug dealing street hood. I’m betting on the O.D.

Dr. Melfi:

Survives. She’s the only pure player in this tome, and she’s safely away from the rest of Tony’s dark world.

Paulie Walnuts:

Dead. Although this one could really go either way, I think Tony will kill him before the fat lady sings.

Phil Leotardo:

Dead. Since Johnny Sack’s in the can, Phil Leotardo’s in charge, and he’s been a pain in everyone’s ass for a while. I think Tony orders his demise—however, due to the politically sensitive nature of the kill, they use hitters from Italy. No one in the Soprano family gets his hands dirty on this one.

images courtesy HBO.com